Iowa State
Men - Women
2016 - 2017 - 2018
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
50  Cailie Logue FR 19:42
68  Anne Frisbie JR 19:49
142  Amanda Vestri FR 20:07
271  Kelly Naumann JR 20:27
397  Karly Ackley FR 20:41
461  Evelyne Guay JR 20:47
588  Bethanie Brown SR 20:58
614  Megan Schott SO 21:01
979  Jasmine Staebler SO 21:27
1,049  Erinn Stenman-Fahey SO 21:31
National Rank #21 of 348
Midwest Region Rank #2 of 37
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 98.8%
Most Likely Finish 23rd at Nationals


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.3%
Top 10 at Nationals 6.9%
Top 20 at Nationals 49.6%


Regional Champion 37.9%
Top 5 in Regional 100.0%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Cailie Logue Anne Frisbie Amanda Vestri Kelly Naumann Karly Ackley Evelyne Guay Bethanie Brown Megan Schott Jasmine Staebler Erinn Stenman-Fahey
Roy Griak Invitational 09/23 303 19:30 19:34 19:57 19:46 20:32 20:21 21:09
Nuttycombe Invitational 10/13 506 19:34 19:41 20:17 20:18 20:49 21:14 21:06
Big 12 Championship 10/28 489 19:50 19:51 20:05 20:23 20:51 20:31 21:28 20:43 21:24 21:15
Midwest Region Championships 11/10 581 19:52 20:06 20:08 20:46 20:28 20:51 20:55





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 98.8% 20.0 505 0.3 0.8 0.6 1.1 2.2 2.1 2.4 3.3 3.2 4.5 3.9 4.7 5.1 4.8 5.7 5.3 6.1 6.0 6.2 5.4 4.9 5.1 3.9 4.1 3.8 2.7 1.3
Region Championship 100% 1.8 87 37.9 50.4 9.0 2.4 0.4 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Cailie Logue 99.6% 55.7 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.2 0.8 0.7 1.1 0.6 0.5 0.5 1.0 0.7 1.0 1.3
Anne Frisbie 99.1% 70.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5
Amanda Vestri 98.8% 124.9 0.1 0.1 0.1
Kelly Naumann 98.8% 179.7
Karly Ackley 98.8% 209.2
Evelyne Guay 98.8% 216.5
Bethanie Brown 98.8% 231.5


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Cailie Logue 5.1 0.4 10.2 13.2 11.8 13.8 12.9 12.1 9.8 5.7 3.4 2.7 1.9 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Anne Frisbie 6.6 0.1 3.3 7.3 9.6 10.5 10.3 14.1 13.4 9.7 6.8 4.5 3.3 2.1 1.6 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2
Amanda Vestri 11.4 0.1 0.3 1.2 1.6 2.6 3.6 6.9 9.7 10.8 10.0 8.5 8.2 6.1 5.2 4.5 3.3 2.9 2.3 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.1 0.9 0.7
Kelly Naumann 22.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 2.0 2.7 2.9 4.3 3.1 3.3 4.6 4.5 4.6 4.5 3.7 4.7 3.3 3.8 3.3 3.4
Karly Ackley 37.6 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.3 2.0 1.8 1.6 2.1 1.8 2.5
Evelyne Guay 44.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.8 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.6
Bethanie Brown 60.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.6 0.6




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 37.9% 100.0% 37.9 37.9 1
2 50.4% 100.0% 50.4 50.4 2
3 9.0% 95.0% 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.1 1.3 1.1 0.9 1.5 1.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 8.5 3
4 2.4% 81.3% 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 2.0 4
5 0.4% 14.3% 0.1 0.3 0.1 5
6 0.1% 0.1 6
7 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
Total 100% 98.8% 37.9 50.4 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.1 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.8 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.5 1.3 88.3 10.5




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Minnesota 99.9% 1.0 1.0
Michigan State 90.4% 1.0 0.9
California 58.5% 1.0 0.6
Utah 43.1% 1.0 0.4
Indiana 42.4% 1.0 0.4
Air Force 32.3% 1.0 0.3
Eastern Michigan 29.6% 1.0 0.3
Georgetown 26.5% 1.0 0.3
Baylor 17.5% 1.0 0.2
Yale 14.2% 1.0 0.1
Oklahoma State 12.1% 1.0 0.1
Virginia 8.9% 1.0 0.1
Syracuse 5.6% 1.0 0.1
Florida State 4.9% 1.0 0.0
Abilene Christian 1.6% 1.0 0.0
South Dakota 0.9% 1.0 0.0
Vanderbilt 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Tulsa 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Notre Dame 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Arizona State 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Kentucky 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Northern Illinois 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Total 4.9
Minimum 1.0
Maximum 10.0